🦋 Iron Butterfly Backtest

SPY Weekly Options | Jan 2025 - Feb 2026 | 40% Profit Target Strategy

Total Profit (40 Contracts)

$408,422
40% Target + Thursday Fallback

Average Weekly Profit

$8,335
Per week average

Win Rate

100%
49 winning weeks

40% Target Hit Rate

71%
37 of 52 weeks

Annual Projection

$433,428
Based on 52 weeks

Wing Breach Rate

56%
29 weeks hit wing

📊 Strategy Comparison (40 Contracts)

Metric 40% Target + Thursday Fallback Thursday Only Exit Difference
Total Profit $408,422 $302,769 +$105,653
Average Weekly $8,335 $6,582 +$1,753
Win Rate 100% 100% -
Valid Exits 49/52 weeks 46/52 weeks -

📈 Monthly Performance (40 Contracts)

$12k 25-01
$22k 25-02
$43k 25-03
$7k 25-04
$22k 25-05
$36k 25-06
$42k 25-07
$42k 25-08
$35k 25-09
$42k 25-10
$22k 25-11
$52k 25-12
$31k 26-01

📋 Weekly Trade Details (40 Contracts)

Week SPY Entry ATM Strike Week Range Max Dist 40% Target P&L Exit Type Thursday P&L Status
2025-01-06 $596.49 $596 $578.55 - $599.70 $17.3 N/A No Exit N/A ⚠️ Breach
2025-01-13 $576.33 $576 $575.35 - $599.36 $23.3 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-01-27 $597.23 $597 $596.03 - $609.96 $12.9 $10,400 40% Target $4,519 ⚠️ Breach
2025-02-03 $593.65 $594 $590.49 - $608.13 $14.1 $10,400 40% Target $2,637 ⚠️ Breach
2025-02-10 $603.24 $603 $598.51 - $610.99 $7.9 $10,400 40% Target $7,301 Near Wing
2025-02-24 $601.64 $602 $582.44 - $602.20 $19.5 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-03-03 $596.35 $596 $565.63 - $597.03 $30.2 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-03-10 $568.02 $568 $549.68 - $569.54 $18.2 $10,400 40% Target $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-03-17 $564.77 $565 $558.03 - $570.95 $6.8 $10,400 40% Target $12,299 ✅ Safe
2025-03-24 $571.01 $571 $555.07 - $576.41 $15.8 $10,400 40% Target $10,650 ⚠️ Breach
2025-03-31 $548.97 $549 $505.06 - $567.42 $43.8 $10,400 40% Target $5,052 ⚠️ Breach
2025-04-07 $486.41 $486 $481.80 - $546.33 $59.8 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-04-14 $542.02 $542 $520.29 - $543.85 $21.6 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-04-21 $520.13 $520 $508.46 - $551.05 $31.0 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-04-28 $551.61 $552 $541.52 - $568.38 $16.3 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-05-05 $563.12 $563 $556.04 - $570.31 $7.2 $10,400 40% Target $7,105 Near Wing
2025-05-12 $579.27 $579 $577.04 - $594.50 $15.3 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-05-19 $589.19 $589 $575.60 - $595.54 $12.7 $10,400 40% Target $9,113 ⚠️ Breach
2025-06-02 $589.33 $589 $585.06 - $600.83 $11.7 $10,400 40% Target $6,066 ⚠️ Breach
2025-06-09 $598.66 $599 $595.48 - $605.06 $6.0 $10,400 40% Target $9,148 ✅ Safe
2025-06-16 $601.37 $601 $592.86 - $604.45 $8.0 $10,400 40% Target N/A Near Wing
2025-06-23 $594.30 $594 $591.89 - $616.39 $22.4 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-06-30 $616.42 $616 $615.04 - $626.28 $10.2 $3,185 Thu Fallback $3,185 ⚠️ Breach
2025-07-07 $623.23 $623 $617.87 - $626.87 $5.0 $10,400 40% Target $9,717 ✅ Safe
2025-07-14 $622.86 $623 $618.05 - $629.47 $6.2 $10,400 40% Target $8,309 ✅ Safe
2025-07-21 $629.17 $629 $626.19 - $637.58 $8.5 $10,400 40% Target $6,277 Near Wing
2025-07-28 $637.67 $638 $619.29 - $639.85 $18.5 $10,400 40% Target $9,921 ⚠️ Breach
2025-08-04 $627.15 $627 $626.79 - $637.64 $10.6 $10,400 40% Target $10,345 ⚠️ Breach
2025-08-11 $637.18 $637 $634.66 - $646.19 $9.2 $10,400 40% Target $5,090 Near Wing
2025-08-18 $643.33 $643 $632.95 - $646.50 $10.0 $10,400 40% Target $5,639 ⚠️ Breach
2025-08-25 $643.98 $644 $641.57 - $649.48 $5.4 $10,400 40% Target $8,189 ✅ Safe
2025-09-08 $648.79 $649 $647.22 - $659.11 $10.0 $3,797 Thu Fallback $3,797 ⚠️ Breach
2025-09-15 $659.93 $660 $654.30 - $664.89 $5.5 $10,400 40% Target $10,345 ✅ Safe
2025-09-22 $662.52 $663 $654.40 - $667.34 $8.5 $10,400 40% Target $7,974 Near Wing
2025-09-29 $664.15 $664 $661.61 - $672.67 $8.6 $10,400 40% Target $7,408 Near Wing
2025-10-06 $670.80 $671 $652.84 - $673.95 $18.1 $10,400 40% Target $11,892 ⚠️ Breach
2025-10-13 $659.88 $660 $653.17 - $670.23 $10.0 $10,400 40% Target $11,710 ⚠️ Breach
2025-10-20 $668.79 $669 $663.30 - $678.47 $9.4 $10,400 40% Target $9,762 Near Wing
2025-10-27 $682.26 $682 $679.24 - $689.70 $7.6 $10,400 40% Target $12,342 Near Wing
2025-11-03 $684.34 $684 $661.21 - $684.70 $22.8 $1,664 Thu Fallback $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-11-10 $678.33 $678 $663.26 - $684.96 $14.6 $10,400 40% Target $7,033 ⚠️ Breach
2025-11-17 $671.54 $672 $650.85 - $675.56 $20.7 $10,400 40% Target $1,664 ⚠️ Breach
2025-11-24 $665.26 $665 $661.59 - $683.96 $18.9 N/A No Exit N/A ⚠️ Breach
2025-12-01 $679.73 $680 $678.74 - $688.39 $8.3 $10,400 40% Target $9,748 Near Wing
2025-12-08 $686.18 $686 $679.17 - $689.25 $6.7 $10,400 40% Target $10,389 ✅ Safe
2025-12-15 $684.21 $684 $671.20 - $684.79 $12.8 $10,400 40% Target $4,637 ⚠️ Breach
2025-12-22 $683.47 $683 $682.68 - $691.66 $8.6 $10,400 40% Target N/A Near Wing
2025-12-29 $688.07 $688 $679.82 - $689.20 $8.1 $10,400 40% Target N/A Near Wing
2026-01-05 $686.88 $687 $686.51 - $695.31 $8.2 $10,400 40% Target $11,270 Near Wing
2026-01-12 $691.99 $692 $686.04 - $696.09 $5.8 $10,400 40% Target $11,589 ✅ Safe
2026-01-26 $691.71 $692 $684.83 - $697.84 $7.1 $10,400 40% Target $12,344 Near Wing
2026-02-02 $691.64 $692 $681.76 - $696.96 $9.9 N/A No Exit N/A Near Wing

🔄 Contract Size Comparison

Metric 20 Contracts 40 Contracts
Credit per Trade $13,000 $26,000
Total Profit $204,211 $408,422
Avg Weekly Profit $4,168 $8,335
Max Risk per Trade $7,000 $14,000
Annual Projection $216,714 $433,428